Swiss National Bank · quarterly

Business cycle signals

This is the SNB's own read of the business cycle, distilled from its quarterly talks with companies across Switzerland (the SNB regional network / company survey). Unlike a single composite barometer, it ships 24 separate qualitative signals on one flat dimension: turnover vs the year-back quarter and vs the previous quarter, capacity utilisation, procurement difficulties, margins, lending conditions, liquidity, staff shortages, expected turnover and employment, expected purchase- and sales-price changes, planned equipment and construction investment, and quantitative wage- and inflation-expectation series. Most signals are diffusion-style indices; a handful (LELJ, LEFJ wage increases, IERW inflation expectations) are in percent. The one nested item is IERW -> {IERWM, IERWJ} (inflation expected in 6-12 months vs 3-5 years). Shorter history than the price/money cubes (starts 2011), and it is the only catalog series that captures firm-level sentiment direct from the central bank rather than a survey institute. KOF's barometer is the canonical leading indicator; this sits beside it as the SNB's qualitative companion.

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