Swiss National Bank · quarterly

Inflation forecast (SNB)

The quarterly resolution of the SNB's conditional inflation forecast, and the fuller of the two forecast cubes. Like the annual cube, D0 is a forecast vintage (one item per quarterly monetary-policy assessment since 2004), each labelled with its conditioning policy rate; the label text traces the Libor-to-policy-rate instrument change at mid-2019, the negative-rate era and the 2022-2024 hikes. What sets the quarterly cube apart: the stored data start in 2001 (earlier than the annual cube's 2004) because the D1 BI "observed inflation" path is carried back further, and the default view here is BI rather than the forecast. So this cube lets you align each historical forecast fan against the realised quarterly CPI it was later measured against. It also reaches further forward (end 2028-10) at quarterly steps. Values are future-dated by construction, since each vintage projects ahead. This is the single canonical cube for the conditional inflation forecast. The former annual cube snbiproga was dropped as redundant: its annual figures are just the calendar-year average of these quarterly forecasts (verified against the data — exact bar SNB rounding), and this quarterly cube is strictly richer (it also carries the observed BI path, starts earlier in 2001, and reaches further forward). An annual view, if needed, is derived on demand by year-averaging the quarterly P series rather than stored as a separate dataset.

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